Watches as Investments: Which References Hold Value in 2026

The Short Answer

Only a narrow slice of the watch market holds its value: steel sports models from Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet, plus a few references from Tudor and Omega. Most other luxury watches sell for less than retail as soon as they are worn. And even the strongest references proved in 2022 that secondary prices can fall — and keep falling — for years: WatchCharts’ Overall Market Index, which tracks pre-owned prices, declined for eleven straight quarters before it began to recover in early 2025.

So the honest answer to “which watches are investments?” is: none, in the sense of an asset with an expected return. Some watches are good stores of value if bought at or near retail, worn, serviced and kept with their papers. This guide sets out which kinds of reference those are, what the index has done, and the round-trip cost that decides whether a watch has actually made you money.

What the Secondary Market Has Done Since 2022

The 2021–22 boom pushed pre-owned prices for the most sought-after steel sports models far above retail. Then the market turned. WatchCharts, which publishes a running index of secondary-market prices, recorded eleven consecutive quarterly declines in its Overall Market Index before it started to rise again in early 2025. By its 19 June 2026 reading the index stood at 37,289 — within about a percent of its twelve-month high and up roughly 9 percent over the year, according to a dealer’s summary of the data — and in the third quarter of 2026 it was still rising, though more slowly.

Two lessons follow. First, recoveries are slow: a buyer who paid peak prices in 2022 has spent years waiting. Second, brands move independently. In May 2026, by the same summary, Rolex fell 2.2 percent while Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet were close to flat. The index is a useful thermometer for the market; it is not a forecast for the watch on your wrist.

Which References Hold Value — and Which Do Not

The pattern is consistent: stainless steel, a sports design, a clean dial, a brand with constrained supply and deep secondary demand. Patek Philippe’s Nautilus 5711, discontinued in 2021, became the emblem of the boom precisely because supply ended while demand did not. For the current Rolex lineup, our Submariner buyer’s guide compares references, and our Rolex vs Patek Philippe comparison sets the two houses side by side.

A Worked Example: The Round-Trip Cost

Whether a watch “held its value” depends on what you paid and what you can actually get, not on listing prices. A worked illustration with round numbers (invented to show the method, not market data):

• You buy at retail for 10,000.
• Five years later, comparable watches are listed for 11,000 on the big platforms.
• A dealer offers you 9,000, because they need room to recondition, warrant and resell it.
• You paid for one service along the way: 800.

Your result is 9,000 − 10,000 − 800 = a loss of 1,800, even though the “market value” rose by 10 percent. Selling privately might get you closer to 11,000, but with platform fees, time and the risk of a fraudulent buyer. This is why the box and papers matter — a full set narrows the dealer’s discount — and why our guide to what you actually get back when you sell and our box and papers guide are the other half of any investment case.

How to Buy With Value in Mind

1. Buy at or near retail. The surest way to lose money on a watch is to pay a large premium over retail during a boom.
2. Choose the reference, not the brand. Within the strongest brands, steel sports models do far better than dress and precious-metal pieces.
3. Keep the full set. Box, papers, receipts and spare links all support the price when you sell.
4. Service properly, polish rarely. Service history adds confidence; heavy polishing removes the crisp edges collectors pay for.
5. Buy pre-owned safely. If the reference you want is only available above retail, buy from a seller who authenticates and offers a return period, as our guide to buying pre-owned watches sets out.

And decide in advance what you will do if prices fall for three years, as they did after 2022. If the answer is “keep wearing it”, you are buying a watch the right way.

The Honest Caveat

Watches are personal luxury goods, not securities. There is no dividend, no regulator for the secondary market, and liquidity can thin out quickly in a downturn — exactly when you might want to sell. Insurance, servicing and dealer margins are real costs, and an index is an average that hides wide variation between references and individual watches.

If you want an investment, use investments; if you want a watch that is likely to keep much of its value while you enjoy it, the references above are the place to look. For the broader brand picture, see our guide to the luxury watches that hold value; for where to buy and sell, our comparison of watch platforms. Nothing here is financial advice.

Sources

• 5dwatches.com/blog/june-2026-watch-market-update-index-near-high
• watchcharts.com/articles/p/9508

Frequently Asked Questions